Moliehi Mafantiri presented South Africa’s Climate Reality and Future Risks at Youth@SAIIA’s YPC Youth Climate Dialogue 2026, “From Protest to Policy: Youth Driving a Just Transition for South Africa’s Climate Future”. The dialogue supports youth participation in shaping evidence-based recommendations for COP31 and South Africa’s climate implementation agenda.
South Africa’s climate risks
Rising temperatures, intensifying heatwaves and shifting rainfall patterns pose growing threats to workers, communities and livelihoods. The Western and Northern Cape face increasing drought risks, while Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal face heightened flood risks. Extreme weather, wildfires and coastal threats place agriculture, infrastructure and food security under pressure, disproportionately affecting communities least responsible for emissions.
Financing a worker-centred just transition
The presentation critiques climate-finance mechanisms that prioritise private investment and investor de-risking over public benefits, worker rights and equitable development. It highlights insufficient grant funding and implementation gaps in South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership.
The IEJ–COSATU worker-centred framework positions climate action as a public good, supported by progressive fiscal policy, monetary reform and worker demands. Proposals include a Climate Response Fund financed through carbon tax revenue and green bonds, and reforms enabling climate-friendly lending and credit allocation by the South African Reserve Bank.
Public finance and development institutions
Development finance institutions (DFIs) are called on to prioritise public purpose over profit by providing patient, affordable capital for green industrialisation and local job creation. Strengthening domestic public finance is essential to reducing reliance on international funding and ensuring investment supports workers and communities.
Youth priorities and COP31
Young people must be recognised as active participants and workers in the transition. Climate finance should support skills development, decent work and employment guarantees.
Four priorities for COP31 are identified: reforming climate finance to prioritise grants and public funding; strengthening credible Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); mobilising domestic public finance; and reforming DFIs to support worker-centred transition plans. Youth climate indicators and greater representation in climate diplomacy are also emphasised.
Conclusion
South Africa’s climate response must combine credible climate action with public accountability, decent work and equitable financing. Meaningful youth participation is central to ensuring the transition advances climate resilience, economic justice and shared prosperity.