IEJ | 4 August 2025
Study presentations on Policy Space for Industrial Development by Rob Davies, made to the SOAS Development Leadership Dialogue and the Future Leaders’ Programme in London in July 2025, that give further insight into the discussion.
As the second Trump administration launches a sweeping new wave of protectionist tariffs, the global trading system finds itself in uncharted territory. These aggressive trade measures, some of the largest consumer tax hikes in US history, threaten to unravel decades of multilateral trade agreements and have sent shockwaves across the Global South. African economies in particular face urgent questions: how to respond, who to align with, and whether this crisis might offer unexpected opportunities for strategic realignment.
In the latest episode of the Economic Justice Matters series, the IEJ, in partnership with SMWX, brings together an expert panel to unpack these pressing questions. Hosted by Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh, the episode features Dr Basani Baloyi (IEJ Programme Director), Dr Rob Davies (former Minister of Trade and Industry), and Professor Jayati Ghosh (Development Economist).
This episode, titled Trump vs BRICS: Inside Global Tariff Chaos, explores the rise of what many are calling “Trump’s Trade War 2.0”, a regime of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” targeting developing nations that contribute little to the US trade deficit, but whose economies may suffer deeply as a result. South Africa alone faces the prospect of losing over 100,000 jobs across key export industries. These are not just economic figures, these are social crises in the making.
The conversation goes beyond the headlines. The speakers examine the gendered impacts of these tariffs, the geopolitical motivations behind them, and the broader threat they pose to global institutions like the World Trade Organisation. They also consider whether BRICS, particularly in the context of increasing global multipolarity, could provide a counterweight to US dominance, or whether a fragmented global order will simply deepen inequality.
To complement the discussion, the IEJ has released a new policy brief by Dr Basani Baloyi: Charting Africa’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Tariff War. The brief critiques the flawed logic of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” and exposes their disproportionate impact on developing countries. It situates these policies within a broader effort to reassert US dominance amid global shifts in power and the breakdown of multilateral trade rules.
The brief proposes a three-part strategy for African countries: reroute trade through regional integration and BRICS partnerships; subvert external dependence through import substitution and leveraging critical minerals; and negotiate collectively to strengthen Africa’s bargaining power. Rather than reacting defensively, African states are urged to use this crisis to advance economic sovereignty and long-term industrial development.
Watch and comment on the full discussion on SMWX’s YouTube Channel, launched today, 4 August 2025.
Study presentations on Policy Space for Industrial Development (Part 1 and Part 2) by Rob Davies, made to the SOAS Development Leadership Dialogue and the Future Leaders’ Programme in London in July 2025.